NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU SDSU
Points 60.7 78.2
Total Points   138.9
Points From 2-Pointers 27.1 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 22.9
Points From Free Throws 8.7 17.1
Shooting SJSU SDSU
Field Goals Made 21.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 55.9
Field Goal % 38.6% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.5 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 8.7 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 23.2
Free Throw % 68.6% 73.7%
Ball Control SJSU SDSU
Rebounds 27.9 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 11.7
Turnovers 10.5 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.8
Steals 4.3 5.4
Fouls 16.2 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU SDSU
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 70.4
% of Possessions with SJSU SDSU
2 Point Attempt 40.1% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 34.3% 25.9%
Player Fouled 19.6% 24.1%
Turnover 15.6% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU SDSU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 35.9%