NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG MER
Points 74.3 68.8
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 27.9 21.5
Points From Free Throws 13.6 12.4
Shooting UNCG MER
Field Goals Made 25.7 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 56.3
Field Goal % 45.2% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 13.6 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 18.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 67.9%
Ball Control UNCG MER
Rebounds 35.9 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.0
Turnovers 10.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.5
Steals 6.3 5.4
Fouls 13.7 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG MER
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 67.8
% of Possessions with UNCG MER
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 24.1%
Player Fouled 23.4% 20.1%
Turnover 14.8% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG MER
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 28.6%