NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORF MORG
Points 78.4 74.2
Total Points   152.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.8 31.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 22.1
Points From Free Throws 21.9 20.8
Shooting NORF MORG
Field Goals Made 25.8 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 54.5
Field Goal % 46.5% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 21.9 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 32.8 27.9
Free Throw % 66.7% 74.5%
Ball Control NORF MORG
Rebounds 37.8 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.4
Turnovers 9.5 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.3
Steals 5.8 3.6
Fouls 18.4 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORF MORG
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.4 71.5
% of Possessions with NORF MORG
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 38.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.1% 27.0%
Player Fouled 25.6% 25.1%
Turnover 13.0% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORF MORG
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 26.5%