NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORF MORG
Points 82.8 75.3
Total Points   158.1
Points From 2-Pointers 48.4 45.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 14.1
Points From Free Throws 18.9 16.2
Shooting NORF MORG
Field Goals Made 29.3 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 62.4
Field Goal % 47.9% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 24.2 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.4 47.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 18.9 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 22.1
Free Throw % 75.2% 73.4%
Ball Control NORF MORG
Rebounds 37.4 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 13.7
Turnovers 10.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.3 5.5
Steals 5.7 5.1
Fouls 15.1 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORF MORG
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 76.2
% of Possessions with NORF MORG
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 53.9%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 16.5%
Player Fouled 22.0% 20.6%
Turnover 13.7% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORF MORG
Shot Blocked 9.0% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 36.9% 35.9%