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Michigan St at Duke
Tue Dec 1, 2020
7:30pm ET
Durham, NC
Michigan St at Duke: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Duke by 4, Total Points: 149.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | MSU | adv | DUKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 19-15-1 | 21-14-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 11-10-1 | 11-10-1 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 6-4-0 | |
| Home | 11-7-0 | 11-7-0 | |
| Away | 8-8-1 | 10-7-1 |
Michigan St Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | James Mad | -16.5 | L by 3 | -19.5 |
| 11/09 | Home | S Indiana | -32.0 | W by 23 | -9.0 |
| 11/14 | Neutral | Duke | +4.0 | L by 9 | -5.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | Butler | -10.0 | W by 20 | +10.0 |
| 11/19 | Home | Alcorn St | -23.0 | W by 32 | +9.0 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Arizona | +5.5 | L by 6 | -0.5 |
| 11/28 | Home | GA Southern | -28.5 | W by 31 | +2.5 |
| 12/05 | Home | Wisconsin | -5.5 | L by 13 | -18.5 |
| 12/10 | Away | Nebraska | -3.5 | L by 7 | -10.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | Baylor | +3.5 | W by 24 | +27.5 |
| 12/18 | Home | Oakland | -15.5 | W by 17 | +1.5 |
| 12/21 | Home | Stony Brook | -22.5 | W by 44 | +21.5 |
| 12/30 | Home | Indiana St | -8.5 | W by 12 | +3.5 |
| 01/04 | Home | Penn St | -13.5 | W by 31 | +17.5 |
| 01/07 | Away | Northwestern | -3.0 | L by 14 | -17.0 |
| 01/11 | Away | Illinois | +3.0 | L by 3 | 0.0 |
| 01/14 | Home | Rutgers | -10.5 | W by 18 | +7.5 |
| 01/18 | Home | Minnesota | -12.0 | W by 10 | -2.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Maryland | -1.0 | W by 2 | +1.0 |
| 01/26 | Away | Wisconsin | +3.0 | L by 15 | -12.0 |
| 01/30 | Home | Michigan | -12.0 | W by 19 | +7.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Maryland | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 02/06 | Away | Minnesota | -3.0 | L by 3 | -6.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Illinois | -3.5 | W by 8 | +4.5 |
| 02/14 | Away | Penn St | -3.0 | W by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Michigan | -6.0 | W by 10 | +4.0 |
| 02/20 | Home | Iowa | -9.5 | L by 7 | -16.5 |
| 02/25 | Home | Ohio St | -10.0 | L by 3 | -13.0 |
| 03/02 | Away | Purdue | +10.0 | L by 6 | +4.0 |
| 03/06 | Home | Northwestern | -9.0 | W by 4 | -5.0 |
| 03/10 | Away | Indiana | -3.5 | L by 1 | -4.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Minnesota | -7.0 | W by 10 | +3.0 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | Purdue | +7.5 | L by 5 | +2.5 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Miss State | -1.5 | W by 18 | +16.5 |
| 03/23 | Neutral | N Carolina | +4.0 | L by 16 | -12.0 |
Duke Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Dartmouth | -28.0 | W by 38 | +10.0 |
| 11/10 | Home | Arizona | -5.0 | L by 5 | -10.0 |
| 11/14 | Neutral | Michigan St | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | Bucknell | -34.5 | W by 30 | -4.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | La Salle | -25.5 | W by 29 | +3.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | S Indiana | -36.5 | W by 18 | -18.5 |
| 11/29 | Away | Arkansas | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 12/02 | Away | GA Tech | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Charlotte | -16.5 | W by 24 | +7.5 |
| 12/12 | Home | Hofstra | -15.5 | W by 21 | +5.5 |
| 12/20 | Neutral | Baylor | -2.0 | W by 8 | +6.0 |
| 12/30 | Home | Queens | -28.0 | W by 37 | +9.0 |
| 01/02 | Home | Syracuse | -14.5 | W by 20 | +5.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Notre Dame | -14.5 | W by 8 | -6.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Pittsburgh | -5.0 | W by 22 | +17.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | GA Tech | -17.5 | W by 5 | -12.5 |
| 01/20 | Home | Pittsburgh | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | Louisville | -14.0 | W by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Clemson | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 01/29 | Away | VA Tech | -3.5 | W by 10 | +6.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | N Carolina | +4.5 | L by 9 | -4.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Notre Dame | -17.0 | W by 18 | +1.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Boston Col | -12.5 | W by 15 | +2.5 |
| 02/12 | Home | Wake Forest | -7.0 | W by 8 | +1.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Florida St | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 02/21 | Away | Miami | -7.0 | W by 29 | +22.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Wake Forest | +3.0 | L by 4 | -1.0 |
| 02/28 | Home | Louisville | -20.5 | W by 25 | +4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Virginia | -10.0 | W by 25 | +15.0 |
| 03/04 | Away | NC State | -6.5 | W by 15 | +8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | N Carolina | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | NC State | -11.0 | L by 5 | -16.0 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Vermont | -12.5 | W by 17 | +4.5 |
| 03/24 | Neutral | James Mad | -6.0 | W by 38 | +32.0 |
| 03/29 | Neutral | Houston | +4.5 | W by 3 | +7.5 |
| 03/31 | Neutral | NC State | -7.0 | L by 12 | -19.0 |
| DUKE -4.0 | Open | -3.5 | High | -4.5 |
| Last | -3.0 | Low | -3.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 2841 games where the closing line favored the home team by 2.5 to 4.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Duke won the game 1764 times (62.1%).
- The team like Michigan St won the game 1077 times (37.9%).
- The team like Duke did better against the spread, going 1426-1372-43 (51.0% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 41 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Michigan St did better against the spread, going 23-18 (56.1% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 1.6 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -4.0 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
| Open | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 |
| History | |||
| 12/01 07:34 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/01 07:29 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 07:19 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 06:44 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/01 06:35 PM | -4.0 | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 06:24 PM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 12/01 05:59 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 05:45 PM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 12/01 05:20 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 04:35 PM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 12/01 04:32 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 03:47 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 03:45 PM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 12/01 03:29 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 02:44 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 02:08 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 01:59 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 01:29 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 12:45 PM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 12/01 12:41 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 12:34 PM | -- | -3.0 | -- |
| 12/01 12:25 PM | -- | -- | -2.5 |
| 12/01 11:47 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 10:59 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 10:14 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 09:44 AM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 12/01 09:26 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 09:25 AM | -- | -- | -3.5 |
| 12/01 09:11 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 08:01 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 04:34 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 01:24 AM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/01 01:19 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 01:15 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 11/30 10:24 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 11/30 09:35 PM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 11/30 08:56 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 11/30 07:44 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 11/30 07:29 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
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