NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU DUKE
Points 69.4 70.9
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.7 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 25.7
Points From Free Throws 11.0 13.3
Shooting MSU DUKE
Field Goals Made 26.4 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 56.1
Field Goal % 45.5% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 11.0 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 18.6
Free Throw % 72.5% 71.6%
Ball Control MSU DUKE
Rebounds 34.1 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 9.5
Turnovers 9.1 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.4
Steals 5.2 5.1
Fouls 13.6 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU DUKE
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 66.9
% of Possessions with MSU DUKE
2 Point Attempt 53.5% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 29.7%
Player Fouled 21.1% 20.4%
Turnover 13.6% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.2% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 27.7%