NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU PUR
Points 66.2 73.2
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 23.4
Points From Free Throws 8.4 15.7
Shooting MSU PUR
Field Goals Made 25.6 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 54.4
Field Goal % 41.2% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 42.6 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 8.4 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 11.7 21.5
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.0%
Ball Control MSU PUR
Rebounds 31.0 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 10.9
Turnovers 7.7 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.0
Steals 6.4 4.2
Fouls 17.1 11.6

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU PUR
Total Possessions 67.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 68.0
% of Possessions with MSU PUR
2 Point Attempt 54.6% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 26.2%
Player Fouled 17.2% 25.2%
Turnover 11.3% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU PUR
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 33.3%