NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU BSU
Points 63.0 79.9
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 26.1
Points From Free Throws 8.5 16.5
Shooting SJSU BSU
Field Goals Made 23.8 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 56.0
Field Goal % 43.5% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 8.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.4 22.2
Free Throw % 68.6% 74.3%
Ball Control SJSU BSU
Rebounds 25.7 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.6 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.1 11.3
Turnovers 9.9 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.3
Steals 3.9 4.3
Fouls 15.1 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU BSU
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 62.1 69.6
% of Possessions with SJSU BSU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 27.2%
Player Fouled 19.6% 22.6%
Turnover 14.8% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU BSU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 15.4% 35.4%