NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG SAM
Points 75.8 80.0
Total Points   155.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.2 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 31.8 32.0
Points From Free Throws 13.8 17.2
Shooting UNCG SAM
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 54.5
Field Goal % 44.4% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.2 28.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.6 10.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.7 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 40.8%
Free Throws Made 13.8 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 24.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 70.7%
Ball Control UNCG SAM
Rebounds 35.1 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.8
Turnovers 13.3 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 7.2 7.4
Fouls 18.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG SAM
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 69.4
% of Possessions with UNCG SAM
2 Point Attempt 35.6% 34.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.7% 31.8%
Player Fouled 22.5% 25.4%
Turnover 18.4% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG SAM
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 27.1%