NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG DUQ
Points 65.2 70.4
Total Points   135.6
Points From 2-Pointers 28.5 30.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 24.7
Points From Free Throws 11.1 15.4
Shooting UNCG DUQ
Field Goals Made 22.8 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 52.7
Field Goal % 41.0% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 11.1 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 21.0
Free Throw % 72.8% 73.4%
Ball Control UNCG DUQ
Rebounds 33.4 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.3
Turnovers 11.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.4
Steals 6.3 6.8
Fouls 16.2 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Duquesne

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG DUQ
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 65.8
% of Possessions with UNCG DUQ
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 38.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 29.8%
Player Fouled 21.0% 24.1%
Turnover 17.6% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG DUQ
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 28.6%