NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU ND
Points 69.6 59.4
Total Points   129.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 23.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 24.7
Points From Free Throws 11.4 11.1
Shooting MSU ND
Field Goals Made 26.0 20.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 52.7
Field Goal % 44.8% 38.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 11.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 27.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 42.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 11.4 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 15.0
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.7%
Ball Control MSU ND
Rebounds 36.3 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.2
Turnovers 7.9 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.2
Steals 6.6 4.4
Fouls 13.1 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU ND
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 61.7
% of Possessions with MSU ND
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 36.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 33.1%
Player Fouled 20.6% 19.9%
Turnover 12.1% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU ND
Shot Blocked 4.3% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 23.8%