NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU MINN
Points 73.2 66.2
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 30.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 24.1
Points From Free Throws 12.0 12.1
Shooting MSU MINN
Field Goals Made 27.4 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 53.8
Field Goal % 45.7% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 30.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 40.4% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 12.0 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 17.9
Free Throw % 72.5% 67.9%
Ball Control MSU MINN
Rebounds 36.1 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.1
Turnovers 8.6 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.8
Steals 7.2 4.8
Fouls 14.2 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Minnesota

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU MINN
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 64.6
% of Possessions with MSU MINN
2 Point Attempt 54.7% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 30.2%
Player Fouled 20.2% 20.9%
Turnover 12.7% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU MINN
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 23.9%