NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU IND
Points 71.0 64.8
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 16.0
Points From Free Throws 12.6 12.2
Shooting MSU IND
Field Goals Made 25.5 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 53.3
Field Goal % 41.4% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 12.6 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 18.5
Free Throw % 72.5% 65.9%
Ball Control MSU IND
Rebounds 36.6 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 7.8
Turnovers 8.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.4
Steals 7.7 3.8
Fouls 15.7 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU IND
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 64.6
% of Possessions with MSU IND
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 21.9%
Player Fouled 20.5% 22.9%
Turnover 11.7% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU IND
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 23.4%