NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU UNM
Points 65.0 83.0
Total Points   148.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 47.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 20.1
Points From Free Throws 8.7 16.0
Shooting SJSU UNM
Field Goals Made 24.4 30.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 62.2
Field Goal % 41.3% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 44.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 8.7 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 22.1
Free Throw % 68.6% 72.3%
Ball Control SJSU UNM
Rebounds 29.4 42.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 12.4
Turnovers 11.1 7.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.9
Steals 4.1 5.8
Fouls 14.8 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU UNM
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 75.4
% of Possessions with SJSU UNM
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 52.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 21.0%
Player Fouled 17.7% 21.0%
Turnover 15.7% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU UNM
Shot Blocked 7.9% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 18.0% 35.3%