NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU PSU
Points 72.6 66.3
Total Points   138.9
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 28.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 23.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 14.2
Shooting MSU PSU
Field Goals Made 26.5 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 54.8
Field Goal % 46.3% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 14.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.3 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 19.0
Free Throw % 72.5% 74.9%
Ball Control MSU PSU
Rebounds 38.3 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 7.7
Turnovers 10.9 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.2
Steals 6.3 5.9
Fouls 15.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU PSU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 66.2
% of Possessions with MSU PSU
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 39.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 30.2%
Player Fouled 22.4% 22.1%
Turnover 15.7% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU PSU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 21.8%