NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU RUTG
Points 68.8 57.7
Total Points   126.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 28.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 16.7
Points From Free Throws 12.9 12.1
Shooting MSU RUTG
Field Goals Made 24.5 20.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 56.8
Field Goal % 42.3% 35.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 14.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.5% 39.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 27.2%
Free Throws Made 12.9 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 17.9
Free Throw % 72.5% 67.7%
Ball Control MSU RUTG
Rebounds 40.9 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.1
Turnovers 11.4 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.8
Steals 6.9 5.7
Fouls 14.2 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU RUTG
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 67.5
% of Possessions with MSU RUTG
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 25.4%
Player Fouled 20.3% 20.6%
Turnover 16.6% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU RUTG
Shot Blocked 8.7% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 25.5%