NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU MD
Points 66.0 61.0
Total Points   127.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 28.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.7 18.3
Points From Free Throws 12.9 14.7
Shooting MSU MD
Field Goals Made 23.9 20.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 53.1
Field Goal % 42.2% 37.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 27.9%
Free Throws Made 12.9 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 20.1
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.1%
Ball Control MSU MD
Rebounds 36.5 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.4
Turnovers 9.8 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.9
Steals 5.9 4.6
Fouls 15.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU MD
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 65.3
% of Possessions with MSU MD
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 27.9%
Player Fouled 22.9% 23.7%
Turnover 14.6% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU MD
Shot Blocked 7.5% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 26.4%