NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG UALR
Points 74.9 71.5
Total Points   146.4
Points From 2-Pointers 27.8 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 20.8
Points From Free Throws 12.6 14.1
Shooting UNCG UALR
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 55.7
Field Goal % 42.8% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 30.1 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 29.3 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 12.6 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 19.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 73.1%
Ball Control UNCG UALR
Rebounds 34.2 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.1
Turnovers 10.4 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.3
Steals 6.2 4.8
Fouls 14.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG UALR
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 68.1
% of Possessions with UNCG UALR
2 Point Attempt 36.8% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 35.8% 23.8%
Player Fouled 20.6% 21.3%
Turnover 14.9% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG UALR
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 30.4%