NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU MICH
Points 77.1 64.4
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 45.1 29.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 22.9
Points From Free Throws 12.2 12.4
Shooting MSU MICH
Field Goals Made 29.1 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 54.3
Field Goal % 47.6% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 46.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 12.2 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 17.5
Free Throw % 72.5% 70.8%
Ball Control MSU MICH
Rebounds 36.2 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.7
Turnovers 7.8 12.6
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.1
Steals 7.8 3.3
Fouls 14.9 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU MICH
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 64.9
% of Possessions with MSU MICH
2 Point Attempt 54.7% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 28.5%
Player Fouled 21.0% 21.6%
Turnover 11.3% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 11.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU MICH
Shot Blocked 5.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 25.2%