NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RICH SLU
Points 77.9 69.1
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 23.7
Points From Free Throws 13.3 13.2
Shooting RICH SLU
Field Goals Made 28.0 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 56.5
Field Goal % 49.6% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.2% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.3 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 17.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 75.1%
Ball Control RICH SLU
Rebounds 31.6 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 5.1 8.2
Turnovers 7.1 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.3
Steals 6.0 4.1
Fouls 13.3 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RICH SLU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 67.1
% of Possessions with RICH SLU
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 28.4%
Player Fouled 21.9% 19.2%
Turnover 10.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken RICH SLU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 16.1% 23.6%