NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAIR MER
Points 74.2 72.9
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 43.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 20.0
Points From Free Throws 14.7 9.1
Shooting FAIR MER
Field Goals Made 25.7 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 58.3
Field Goal % 44.4% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 14.7 9.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 13.4
Free Throw % 74.0% 67.9%
Ball Control FAIR MER
Rebounds 32.0 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.7
Turnovers 8.8 11.6
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.9
Steals 7.7 4.8
Fouls 11.1 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAIR MER
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 67.2
% of Possessions with FAIR MER
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 22.8%
Player Fouled 21.5% 16.0%
Turnover 12.7% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAIR MER
Shot Blocked 5.0% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 30.1%