NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAIR PROV
Points 64.8 76.3
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 26.9
Points From Free Throws 10.7 12.6
Shooting FAIR PROV
Field Goals Made 23.1 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 55.1
Field Goal % 37.9% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 28.8
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 64.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 10.7 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 16.9
Free Throw % 74.0% 74.5%
Ball Control FAIR PROV
Rebounds 30.0 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 8.7
Turnovers 9.2 12.5
Blocked Shots 1.5 3.8
Steals 8.2 5.0
Fouls 14.2 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Fairfield

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAIR PROV
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 66.2
% of Possessions with FAIR PROV
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 36.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 33.2%
Player Fouled 17.5% 20.3%
Turnover 13.2% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAIR PROV
Shot Blocked 7.0% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 28.7%