NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAIR MAN
Points 79.3 67.8
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.0 22.7
Points From Free Throws 11.6 7.8
Shooting FAIR MAN
Field Goals Made 29.0 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 57.6
Field Goal % 47.6% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 11.6 7.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 10.6
Free Throw % 74.0% 73.2%
Ball Control FAIR MAN
Rebounds 34.3 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 7.6
Turnovers 8.9 13.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.6
Steals 9.4 5.6
Fouls 10.6 11.6

Playing Style Advantage: Manhattan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAIR MAN
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 64.6
% of Possessions with FAIR MAN
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 29.9%
Player Fouled 16.4% 15.1%
Turnover 12.6% 19.0%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 13.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAIR MAN
Shot Blocked 4.5% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 23.3%