NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAIR NIAG
Points 75.8 71.3
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 42.6 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 19.0
Points From Free Throws 12.4 11.6
Shooting FAIR NIAG
Field Goals Made 28.2 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 52.8
Field Goal % 48.9% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 58.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 12.4 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 15.6
Free Throw % 74.0% 74.1%
Ball Control FAIR NIAG
Rebounds 29.3 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 6.6
Turnovers 8.4 12.8
Blocked Shots 2.0 1.7
Steals 8.4 4.2
Fouls 13.9 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Niagara

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAIR NIAG
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 62.7
% of Possessions with FAIR NIAG
2 Point Attempt 50.7% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 23.8%
Player Fouled 18.1% 20.2%
Turnover 12.2% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 12.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAIR NIAG
Shot Blocked 3.3% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 23.2%