NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAIR MRST
Points 65.9 64.7
Total Points   130.7
Points From 2-Pointers 28.6 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 21.7
Points From Free Throws 13.0 9.6
Shooting FAIR MRST
Field Goals Made 22.4 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 52.3
Field Goal % 41.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 13.0 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 13.2
Free Throw % 74.0% 72.8%
Ball Control FAIR MRST
Rebounds 31.6 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 7.0
Turnovers 9.8 13.0
Blocked Shots 1.7 2.3
Steals 8.4 4.9
Fouls 12.4 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Fairfield

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAIR MRST
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 60.9
% of Possessions with FAIR MRST
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 27.4%
Player Fouled 19.9% 18.5%
Turnover 14.6% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 12.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAIR MRST
Shot Blocked 4.4% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 23.0%