NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ASU CAL
Points 71.5 74.0
Total Points   145.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 27.5
Points From Free Throws 13.9 14.2
Shooting ASU CAL
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 61.1
Field Goal % 42.2% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.7% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 13.9 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 19.4
Free Throw % 65.3% 73.2%
Ball Control ASU CAL
Rebounds 35.8 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 10.2
Turnovers 8.7 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.0
Steals 6.5 5.0
Fouls 14.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ASU CAL
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 73.0
% of Possessions with ASU CAL
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 31.8%
Player Fouled 20.6% 19.5%
Turnover 11.7% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ASU CAL
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 26.6%