NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ASU SMU
Points 69.9 73.3
Total Points   143.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 22.9
Points From Free Throws 13.5 13.8
Shooting ASU SMU
Field Goals Made 24.9 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 62.8
Field Goal % 42.9% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 13.5 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 20.1
Free Throw % 65.3% 68.6%
Ball Control ASU SMU
Rebounds 34.9 42.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 13.7
Turnovers 10.5 11.0
Blocked Shots 5.6 3.3
Steals 7.4 6.7
Fouls 13.3 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ASU SMU
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 75.0
% of Possessions with ASU SMU
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 26.2%
Player Fouled 21.5% 18.4%
Turnover 14.5% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ASU SMU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 9.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 34.5%