NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring INST ILST
Points 79.7 66.5
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 31.2 16.8
Points From Free Throws 13.4 12.1
Shooting INST ILST
Field Goals Made 28.0 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 56.6
Field Goal % 50.6% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 26.0 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 67.5% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 29.2 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 13.4 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 16.6
Free Throw % 80.7% 73.0%
Ball Control INST ILST
Rebounds 33.1 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 7.9
Turnovers 9.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 1.7 2.2
Steals 4.5 5.1
Fouls 15.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats INST ILST
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 67.0
% of Possessions with INST ILST
2 Point Attempt 34.3% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 38.5% 24.8%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.4%
Turnover 14.2% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken INST ILST
Shot Blocked 4.0% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 22.9%