NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring INST ILST
Points 80.2 66.7
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 31.4 17.4
Points From Free Throws 13.3 12.0
Shooting INST ILST
Field Goals Made 28.2 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 56.7
Field Goal % 51.1% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 26.0 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 68.3% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 29.3 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 13.3 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 16.5
Free Throw % 80.7% 73.0%
Ball Control INST ILST
Rebounds 33.4 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 7.6
Turnovers 9.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 1.7 2.1
Steals 4.3 5.0
Fouls 15.4 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats INST ILST
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 67.0
% of Possessions with INST ILST
2 Point Attempt 34.3% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 38.6% 25.0%
Player Fouled 21.8% 22.4%
Turnover 14.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken INST ILST
Shot Blocked 3.8% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 21.9%