NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring INST SIU
Points 82.5 73.1
Total Points   155.6
Points From 2-Pointers 43.9 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 23.9
Points From Free Throws 17.5 13.1
Shooting INST SIU
Field Goals Made 29.0 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 56.7
Field Goal % 54.7% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 67.3% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 17.5 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 17.0
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.2%
Ball Control INST SIU
Rebounds 31.8 27.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 20.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.4 6.4
Turnovers 10.1 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.0
Steals 4.9 5.0
Fouls 15.7 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats INST SIU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 67.0
% of Possessions with INST SIU
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 29.6%
Player Fouled 25.2% 22.3%
Turnover 14.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken INST SIU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 19.5%