NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring INST SIU
Points 82.0 72.7
Total Points   154.7
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 23.1
Points From Free Throws 17.6 13.2
Shooting INST SIU
Field Goals Made 28.7 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 56.5
Field Goal % 54.2% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 66.5% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 17.6 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 17.1
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.2%
Ball Control INST SIU
Rebounds 31.6 27.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 6.6
Turnovers 10.1 9.9
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.1
Steals 5.1 5.0
Fouls 15.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats INST SIU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 66.9
% of Possessions with INST SIU
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 29.3%
Player Fouled 25.0% 22.3%
Turnover 14.3% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken INST SIU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 20.3%