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N Carolina at Duke
Sat Feb 4, 2023
6:30pm ET
Durham, NC
N Carolina at Duke: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Duke by 2.5, Total Points: 145.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | UNC | adv | DUKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 21-16-0 | 21-14-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 13-10-0 | 11-10-1 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 6-4-0 | |
| Home | 8-7-0 | 11-7-0 | |
| Away | 13-9-0 | 10-7-1 |
N Carolina Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Radford | -18.5 | W by 16 | -2.5 |
| 11/12 | Home | Lehigh | -24.0 | W by 22 | -2.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | UC Riverside | -23.5 | W by 25 | +1.5 |
| 11/22 | Neutral | N Iowa | -11.5 | W by 22 | +10.5 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Villanova | -2.5 | L by 2 | -4.5 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | Arkansas | -3.5 | W by 15 | +11.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Tennessee | -2.5 | W by 8 | +5.5 |
| 12/02 | Home | Florida St | -12.0 | W by 8 | -4.0 |
| 12/05 | Neutral | Connecticut | +5.5 | L by 11 | -5.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | Kentucky | -1.0 | L by 4 | -5.0 |
| 12/20 | Neutral | Oklahoma | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 12/29 | Home | Charl South | -30.5 | W by 45 | +14.5 |
| 01/02 | Away | Pittsburgh | -4.0 | W by 13 | +9.0 |
| 01/06 | Away | Clemson | +3.0 | W by 10 | +13.0 |
| 01/10 | Away | NC State | -3.0 | W by 13 | +10.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Syracuse | -12.0 | W by 36 | +24.0 |
| 01/17 | Home | Louisville | -21.0 | W by 16 | -5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Boston Col | -7.5 | W by 10 | +2.5 |
| 01/22 | Home | Wake Forest | -8.0 | W by 21 | +13.0 |
| 01/27 | Away | Florida St | -6.5 | W by 7 | +0.5 |
| 01/30 | Away | GA Tech | -8.5 | L by 1 | -9.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Duke | -4.5 | W by 9 | +4.5 |
| 02/06 | Home | Clemson | -6.5 | L by 4 | -10.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | Miami | -4.0 | W by 3 | -1.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Syracuse | -8.0 | L by 7 | -15.0 |
| 02/17 | Home | VA Tech | -11.0 | W by 15 | +4.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Virginia | -2.5 | W by 10 | +7.5 |
| 02/26 | Home | Miami | -14.0 | W by 4 | -10.0 |
| 03/02 | Home | NC State | -11.0 | W by 9 | -2.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | Notre Dame | -16.0 | W by 33 | +17.0 |
| 03/09 | Away | Duke | +4.5 | W by 5 | +9.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Florida St | -11.0 | W by 25 | +14.0 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | Pittsburgh | -7.5 | W by 7 | -0.5 |
| 03/16 | Neutral | NC State | -10.0 | L by 8 | -18.0 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Wagner | -25.5 | W by 28 | +2.5 |
| 03/23 | Neutral | Michigan St | -4.0 | W by 16 | +12.0 |
| 03/28 | Neutral | Alabama | -4.5 | L by 2 | -6.5 |
Duke Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Dartmouth | -28.0 | W by 38 | +10.0 |
| 11/10 | Home | Arizona | -5.0 | L by 5 | -10.0 |
| 11/14 | Neutral | Michigan St | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | Bucknell | -34.5 | W by 30 | -4.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | La Salle | -25.5 | W by 29 | +3.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | S Indiana | -36.5 | W by 18 | -18.5 |
| 11/29 | Away | Arkansas | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 12/02 | Away | GA Tech | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Charlotte | -16.5 | W by 24 | +7.5 |
| 12/12 | Home | Hofstra | -15.5 | W by 21 | +5.5 |
| 12/20 | Neutral | Baylor | -2.0 | W by 8 | +6.0 |
| 12/30 | Home | Queens | -28.0 | W by 37 | +9.0 |
| 01/02 | Home | Syracuse | -14.5 | W by 20 | +5.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Notre Dame | -14.5 | W by 8 | -6.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Pittsburgh | -5.0 | W by 22 | +17.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | GA Tech | -17.5 | W by 5 | -12.5 |
| 01/20 | Home | Pittsburgh | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | Louisville | -14.0 | W by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Clemson | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 01/29 | Away | VA Tech | -3.5 | W by 10 | +6.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | N Carolina | +4.5 | L by 9 | -4.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Notre Dame | -17.0 | W by 18 | +1.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Boston Col | -12.5 | W by 15 | +2.5 |
| 02/12 | Home | Wake Forest | -7.0 | W by 8 | +1.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Florida St | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 02/21 | Away | Miami | -7.0 | W by 29 | +22.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Wake Forest | +3.0 | L by 4 | -1.0 |
| 02/28 | Home | Louisville | -20.5 | W by 25 | +4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Virginia | -10.0 | W by 25 | +15.0 |
| 03/04 | Away | NC State | -6.5 | W by 15 | +8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | N Carolina | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | NC State | -11.0 | L by 5 | -16.0 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Vermont | -12.5 | W by 17 | +4.5 |
| 03/24 | Neutral | James Mad | -6.0 | W by 38 | +32.0 |
| 03/29 | Neutral | Houston | +4.5 | W by 3 | +7.5 |
| 03/31 | Neutral | NC State | -7.0 | L by 12 | -19.0 |
| DUKE -2.5 | Open | -3.0 | High | -3.0 |
| Last | -3.0 | Low | -2.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 3526 games where the closing line favored the home team by 1.5 to 3.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Duke won the game 2049 times (58.1%).
- The team like North Carolina won the game 1477 times (41.9%).
- The team like Duke did better against the spread, going 1768-1702-56 (51.0% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2019-2020 NCAA Basketball season there have been 5018 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like North Carolina did better against the spread, going 2497-2417-104 (50.8% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -2.5 | -2.5 | -- |
| Open | -3.0 | -3.0 | -- |
| History | |||
| 02/04 06:33 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 02/04 06:26 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 05:23 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 04:59 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 04:17 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 03:17 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 01:50 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 08:14 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 07:16 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 05:28 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/04 02:31 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/03 07:44 PM | -- | -3.0 | -- |
| 02/03 06:56 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
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