NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC DUKE
Points 76.6 73.7
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 22.9
Points From Free Throws 14.8 13.9
Shooting UNC DUKE
Field Goals Made 27.5 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 60.5
Field Goal % 44.9% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 14.8 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 19.4
Free Throw % 75.4% 71.6%
Ball Control UNC DUKE
Rebounds 38.8 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.0
Turnovers 8.5 8.3
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.7
Steals 4.6 4.8
Fouls 14.2 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC DUKE
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 71.3
% of Possessions with UNC DUKE
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 26.2%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.1%
Turnover 12.0% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.3% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 24.2%