NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC STAN
Points 84.7 71.1
Total Points   155.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.3 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.1 23.0
Points From Free Throws 14.3 11.7
Shooting UNC STAN
Field Goals Made 30.4 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 66.4 59.8
Field Goal % 45.7% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 14.3 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 15.9
Free Throw % 75.4% 73.9%
Ball Control UNC STAN
Rebounds 41.1 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 6.2
Turnovers 8.0 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.1
Steals 6.4 3.9
Fouls 15.0 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Stanford

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC STAN
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 77.8 69.1
% of Possessions with UNC STAN
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 27.9%
Player Fouled 19.1% 20.0%
Turnover 10.8% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC STAN
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 17.2%