NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC UVA
Points 68.5 59.3
Total Points   127.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 17.3
Points From Free Throws 12.8 8.6
Shooting UNC UVA
Field Goals Made 24.1 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 59.7
Field Goal % 40.0% 37.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 40.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 12.8 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 13.8
Free Throw % 75.4% 62.1%
Ball Control UNC UVA
Rebounds 44.4 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 32.4 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 7.2
Turnovers 8.5 6.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 5.3
Steals 4.5 4.9
Fouls 12.0 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC UVA
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 67.1
% of Possessions with UNC UVA
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 55.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 24.0%
Player Fouled 19.7% 18.1%
Turnover 12.8% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC UVA
Shot Blocked 9.0% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 31.9% 18.3%