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North Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Thu Mar 13, 2025
2:30pm ET
Charlotte, NC
(Neutral Site)
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: North Carolina by 6, Total Points: 146.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | UNC | adv | WAKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 16-20-1 | 13-18-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 10-12-1 | 10-10-1 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 4-1-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Last 10 | 8-2-0 | 4-6-0 | |
| Home | 7-8-0 | 5-10-1 | |
| Away | 9-12-1 | 8-8-0 |
North Carolina Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04 | Home | Elon | -28.0 | W by 14 | -14.0 |
| 11/08 | Away | Kansas | +8.0 | L by 3 | +5.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | American | -24.5 | W by 52 | +27.5 |
| 11/23 | Away | Hawai'i | -16.0 | W by 18 | +2.0 |
| 11/25 | Neutral | Dayton | -9.0 | W by 2 | -7.0 |
| 11/26 | Neutral | Auburn | +3.5 | L by 13 | -9.5 |
| 11/27 | Neutral | Michigan St | -5.5 | L by 3 | -8.5 |
| 12/04 | Home | Alabama | -1.5 | L by 15 | -16.5 |
| 12/07 | Home | Georgia Tech | -18.0 | W by 3 | -15.0 |
| 12/14 | Home | La Salle | -20.5 | W by 26 | +5.5 |
| 12/17 | Neutral | Florida | +3.5 | L by 6 | -2.5 |
| 12/21 | Neutral | UCLA | +1.0 | W by 2 | +3.0 |
| 12/29 | Home | Campbell | -28.0 | W by 16 | -12.0 |
| 01/01 | Away | Louisville | +1.5 | L by 13 | -11.5 |
| 01/04 | Away | Notre Dame | -3.5 | W by 1 | -2.5 |
| 01/07 | Home | SMU | -6.5 | W by 15 | +8.5 |
| 01/11 | Away | NC State | -4.5 | W by 2 | -2.5 |
| 01/15 | Home | California | -15.5 | W by 26 | +10.5 |
| 01/18 | Home | Stanford | -12.0 | L by 1 | -13.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Wake Forest | +1.0 | L by 1 | 0.0 |
| 01/25 | Home | Boston College | -19.5 | W by 6 | -13.5 |
| 01/28 | Away | Pittsburgh | +2.5 | L by 8 | -5.5 |
| 02/01 | Away | Duke | +13.5 | L by 17 | -3.5 |
| 02/08 | Home | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | W by 1 | -4.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | Clemson | +4.0 | L by 20 | -16.0 |
| 02/15 | Away | Syracuse | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 02/19 | Home | NC State | -10.5 | W by 24 | +13.5 |
| 02/22 | Home | Virginia | -9.5 | W by 15 | +5.5 |
| 02/24 | Away | Florida St | -3.5 | W by 11 | +7.5 |
| 03/01 | Home | Miami | -17.5 | W by 19 | +1.5 |
| 03/04 | Away | Virginia Tech | -8.0 | W by 32 | +24.0 |
| 03/08 | Home | Duke | +10.0 | L by 13 | -3.0 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | Notre Dame | -10.5 | W by 20 | +9.5 |
| 03/13 | Neutral | Wake Forest | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Duke | +7.0 | L by 3 | +4.0 |
| 03/18 | Neutral | San Diego St | -4.5 | W by 27 | +22.5 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Mississippi | -1.5 | L by 7 | -8.5 |
Wake Forest Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04 | Home | Coppin St | -34.5 | W by 15 | -19.5 |
| 11/07 | Home | NC A&T | -26.5 | W by 16 | -10.5 |
| 11/10 | Neutral | Michigan | +2.0 | W by 2 | +4.0 |
| 11/13 | Home | SC Upstate | -29.5 | W by 5 | -24.5 |
| 11/16 | Away | Xavier | +7.5 | L by 15 | -7.5 |
| 11/19 | Home | W Carolina | -23.0 | W by 13 | -10.0 |
| 11/23 | Home | Detroit Mercy | -24.0 | W by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/28 | Neutral | Florida | +8.0 | L by 17 | -9.0 |
| 11/29 | Neutral | Minnesota | -3.0 | W by 6 | +3.0 |
| 12/03 | Away | Texas A&M | +9.0 | L by 13 | -4.0 |
| 12/07 | Home | Boston College | -10.5 | W by 6 | -4.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | J Madison | -8.0 | W by 17 | +9.0 |
| 12/21 | Away | Clemson | +8.5 | L by 11 | -2.5 |
| 12/31 | Away | Syracuse | -2.0 | W by 10 | +8.0 |
| 01/04 | Home | NC State | -5.5 | W by 18 | +12.5 |
| 01/11 | Away | Miami | -3.5 | W by 10 | +6.5 |
| 01/15 | Home | Stanford | -6.0 | W by 13 | +7.0 |
| 01/18 | Away | Virginia Tech | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 01/21 | Home | North Carolina | -1.0 | W by 1 | 0.0 |
| 01/25 | Home | Duke | +11.5 | L by 7 | +4.5 |
| 01/28 | Away | Louisville | +9.5 | L by 13 | -3.5 |
| 02/01 | Home | Pittsburgh | -3.0 | W by 2 | -1.0 |
| 02/05 | Away | Stanford | +2.0 | W by 6 | +8.0 |
| 02/08 | Away | California | -2.5 | W by 10 | +7.5 |
| 02/12 | Home | Florida St | -6.5 | L by 2 | -8.5 |
| 02/15 | Away | SMU | +6.5 | W by 11 | +17.5 |
| 02/22 | Away | NC State | -4.0 | L by 12 | -16.0 |
| 02/26 | Home | Virginia | -7.0 | L by 8 | -15.0 |
| 03/01 | Home | Notre Dame | -9.5 | W by 3 | -6.5 |
| 03/03 | Away | Duke | +19.0 | L by 33 | -14.0 |
| 03/08 | Home | Georgia Tech | -6.5 | W by 26 | +19.5 |
| 03/13 | Neutral | North Carolina | +6.0 | L by 9 | -3.0 |
| UNC -6.0 | Open | -6.5 | High | -6.5 |
| Last | -5.5 | Low | -5.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2019-2020 NCAA Basketball season there have been 846 neutral site games where the closing line favored one team by 5 to 7 points. In these games:
- The team like North Carolina won the game 577 times (68.2%).
- The team like Wake Forest won the game 269 times (31.8%).
- The team like Wake Forest did better against the spread, going 428-400-18 (51.7% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.7 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2021-2022 NCAA Basketball season there have been 5666 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like North Carolina did better against the spread, going 2794-2776-96 (50.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.0 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| Open | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| History | |||
| 03/13 02:38 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 02:23 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 01:40 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 12:58 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 12:40 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 10:58 AM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 10:46 AM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 10:16 AM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 09:52 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 07:28 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 04:46 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/13 01:10 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/12 10:35 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/12 09:02 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/12 08:28 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
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