NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC WAKE
Points 74.3 70.2
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 15.5
Points From Free Throws 15.4 15.4
Shooting UNC WAKE
Field Goals Made 25.4 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 57.0
Field Goal % 43.8% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 27.5%
Free Throws Made 15.4 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 20.3
Free Throw % 72.4% 75.9%
Ball Control UNC WAKE
Rebounds 36.9 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 7.5
Turnovers 10.6 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.2
Steals 5.3 6.1
Fouls 16.0 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: North Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC WAKE
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 69.0
% of Possessions with UNC WAKE
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 23.4%
Player Fouled 21.3% 22.4%
Turnover 14.9% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC WAKE
Shot Blocked 7.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 21.6%