NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC ND
Points 76.8 62.5
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 28.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 22.3
Points From Free Throws 15.3 11.6
Shooting UNC ND
Field Goals Made 27.0 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 57.6
Field Goal % 44.2% 37.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 41.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 15.3 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 15.7
Free Throw % 75.4% 73.7%
Ball Control UNC ND
Rebounds 41.3 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 7.8
Turnovers 7.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.8 2.5
Steals 5.8 4.1
Fouls 13.7 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Notre Dame

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC ND
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 66.5
% of Possessions with UNC ND
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 29.5%
Player Fouled 21.2% 19.7%
Turnover 10.7% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC ND
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 20.8%