NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC SYR
Points 84.9 71.4
Total Points   156.3
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 18.6
Points From Free Throws 14.4 14.1
Shooting UNC SYR
Field Goals Made 30.7 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 59.9
Field Goal % 47.0% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 14.4 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.4
Free Throw % 75.4% 72.8%
Ball Control UNC SYR
Rebounds 44.3 29.7
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 6.4
Turnovers 10.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.8
Steals 5.5 6.4
Fouls 15.1 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC SYR
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 77.4 70.9
% of Possessions with UNC SYR
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 22.5%
Player Fouled 19.6% 20.3%
Turnover 14.3% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC SYR
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 37.0% 17.2%