NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC PORT
Points 91.7 63.3
Total Points   155.0
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 28.4
Points From 3-Pointers 36.2 24.2
Points From Free Throws 13.1 10.6
Shooting UNC PORT
Field Goals Made 33.2 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 66.3 59.0
Field Goal % 50.1% 37.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 14.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 42.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 28.3 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 42.5% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 13.1 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 15.0
Free Throw % 75.4% 70.9%
Ball Control UNC PORT
Rebounds 43.6 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 32.3 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 6.4
Turnovers 6.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 1.9
Steals 5.9 2.7
Fouls 15.2 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC PORT
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 76.9 67.5
% of Possessions with UNC PORT
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 32.4%
Player Fouled 19.8% 21.1%
Turnover 8.5% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 3.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC PORT
Shot Blocked 3.2% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 16.5%