NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC UNLV
Points 78.9 67.3
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 17.3
Points From Free Throws 16.6 13.6
Shooting UNC UNLV
Field Goals Made 27.1 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 57.9
Field Goal % 43.6% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 46.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 16.6 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 18.6
Free Throw % 75.4% 73.0%
Ball Control UNC UNLV
Rebounds 42.1 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 7.8
Turnovers 8.5 9.6
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.2
Steals 5.5 4.0
Fouls 15.0 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC UNLV
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 68.5
% of Possessions with UNC UNLV
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 23.0%
Player Fouled 21.1% 21.3%
Turnover 12.1% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC UNLV
Shot Blocked 7.4% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 21.4%