NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC FSU
Points 84.4 69.9
Total Points   154.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 15.3
Points From Free Throws 21.5 15.1
Shooting UNC FSU
Field Goals Made 27.3 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 59.9
Field Goal % 45.2% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 21.5 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 28.6 21.4
Free Throw % 75.4% 70.5%
Ball Control UNC FSU
Rebounds 44.5 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.4 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 8.1
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.5
Steals 5.0 6.4
Fouls 17.0 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC FSU
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 78.0 72.6
% of Possessions with UNC FSU
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 20.6%
Player Fouled 24.7% 22.8%
Turnover 14.5% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC FSU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 38.2% 21.0%