NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC NCST
Points 78.2 70.9
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 18.3
Points From Free Throws 16.5 14.1
Shooting UNC NCST
Field Goals Made 26.8 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 61.5
Field Goal % 43.2% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 16.5 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 19.4
Free Throw % 75.4% 72.6%
Ball Control UNC NCST
Rebounds 42.5 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.7 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 8.1
Turnovers 9.1 8.0
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.9
Steals 4.2 5.2
Fouls 14.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC NCST
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 72.7
% of Possessions with UNC NCST
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 22.8%
Player Fouled 21.1% 20.5%
Turnover 12.6% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC NCST
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 21.0%