NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD LOU
Points 74.0 63.4
Total Points   137.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 12.1
Points From Free Throws 18.7 16.7
Shooting MD LOU
Field Goals Made 24.4 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 52.7
Field Goal % 45.9% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 4.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 14.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 27.9%
Free Throws Made 18.7 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 22.5
Free Throw % 73.1% 74.2%
Ball Control MD LOU
Rebounds 35.2 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 8.5
Turnovers 10.7 12.6
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.7
Steals 6.8 4.8
Fouls 17.6 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD LOU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 66.2
% of Possessions with MD LOU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 18.0%
Player Fouled 25.0% 25.0%
Turnover 15.3% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD LOU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 24.8%