NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD ILL
Points 75.8 76.8
Total Points   152.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.8 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 24.1
Points From Free Throws 14.0 13.5
Shooting MD ILL
Field Goals Made 27.6 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 66.5 65.9
Field Goal % 41.5% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 48.1 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 27.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 14.0 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 17.6
Free Throw % 75.9% 76.6%
Ball Control MD ILL
Rebounds 35.8 45.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 31.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 14.2
Turnovers 7.2 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.5
Steals 6.9 3.1
Fouls 13.5 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD ILL
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 77.1 77.3
% of Possessions with MD ILL
2 Point Attempt 56.1% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 30.8%
Player Fouled 19.6% 18.1%
Turnover 9.7% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 4.2% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD ILL
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 35.3%