NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD NW
Points 69.0 62.2
Total Points   131.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 26.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.6 27.3
Points From Free Throws 11.7 8.2
Shooting MD NW
Field Goals Made 23.9 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 55.9
Field Goal % 46.0% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 25.3 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.7 26.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 11.7 8.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 11.9
Free Throw % 69.7% 68.8%
Ball Control MD NW
Rebounds 34.7 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 6.3
Turnovers 10.7 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.0
Steals 5.3 5.7
Fouls 12.2 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD NW
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 62.2 63.1
% of Possessions with MD NW
2 Point Attempt 34.3% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 36.2% 35.1%
Player Fouled 22.4% 18.2%
Turnover 16.0% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD NW
Shot Blocked 3.7% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 17.9%