NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT
Points 65.0 62.8
Total Points   127.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 13.8
Points From Free Throws 11.0 14.8
Shooting NCAT
Field Goals Made 23.3 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 56.0
Field Goal % 39.8% 38.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 41.0% 40.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 13.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 11.0 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 21.0
Free Throw % 68.9% 70.8%
Ball Control NCAT
Rebounds 40.6 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 9.1
Turnovers 11.2 9.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.8
Steals 5.1 5.0
Fouls 14.6 12.5

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 67.9
% of Possessions with NCAT
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 53.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 17.4%
Player Fouled 18.4% 21.5%
Turnover 16.5% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT
Shot Blocked 5.2% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.8% 24.4%