NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BU ND
Points 58.2 69.5
Total Points   127.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.7 27.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 27.8
Points From Free Throws 10.1 14.4
Shooting BU ND
Field Goals Made 20.6 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 51.8
Field Goal % 37.0% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 27.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 24.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 10.1 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 19.6
Free Throw % 72.2% 73.7%
Ball Control BU ND
Rebounds 32.4 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 7.7
Turnovers 10.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.5
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 15.2 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Notre Dame

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BU ND
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.5 63.5
% of Possessions with BU ND
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 36.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 32.1%
Player Fouled 18.7% 23.0%
Turnover 15.1% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BU ND
Shot Blocked 4.9% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 24.3%