NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM
Points 59.7 69.8
Total Points   129.4
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 17.8
Points From Free Throws 11.1 10.8
Shooting MSM
Field Goals Made 20.8 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 56.6
Field Goal % 36.3% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 35.9% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 14.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 41.7%
Free Throws Made 11.1 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 15.0
Free Throw % 68.9% 71.9%
Ball Control MSM
Rebounds 32.4 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.9
Turnovers 12.4 13.4
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.8
Steals 8.3 5.8
Fouls 12.5 13.2

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 66.1
% of Possessions with MSM
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 52.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 17.5%
Player Fouled 19.0% 18.0%
Turnover 17.8% 19.3%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 31.0%