NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU
Points 54.5 63.5
Total Points   118.0
Points From 2-Pointers 23.8 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 15.4
Points From Free Throws 14.3 16.2
Shooting SPU
Field Goals Made 17.4 21.1
Field Goals Attempted 49.8 53.7
Field Goal % 34.9% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 11.9 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 35.1% 38.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 12.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 41.4%
Free Throws Made 14.3 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 22.8
Free Throw % 68.9% 71.2%
Ball Control SPU
Rebounds 33.4 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 12.7
Turnovers 13.9 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.8
Steals 5.7 5.9
Fouls 15.8 17.0

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 67.9
% of Possessions with SPU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 15.3%
Player Fouled 25.5% 23.7%
Turnover 20.9% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU
Shot Blocked 9.2% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 35.3%