NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS
Points 61.2 74.2
Total Points   135.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 15.2
Points From Free Throws 11.5 18.4
Shooting UMASS
Field Goals Made 21.8 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.7 55.0
Field Goal % 34.9% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 44.1 42.6
2 Point Shooting % 35.8% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 12.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 40.9%
Free Throws Made 11.5 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 24.8
Free Throw % 68.9% 74.3%
Ball Control UMASS
Rebounds 34.7 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 30.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 10.7
Turnovers 11.4 12.9
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.2
Steals 7.8 5.8
Fouls 16.4 13.3

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 69.8
% of Possessions with UMASS
2 Point Attempt 51.2% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 14.6%
Player Fouled 18.5% 22.8%
Turnover 15.8% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS
Shot Blocked 7.8% 9.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 32.5%